Healthcare costs are too high. Too many people do not have insurance. Insurance companies make too much profit. Too many people are dying because they do not have access to healthcare. The problem has gone on too long and something has to be done. This is the simple argument for reform.

If all these problems could be solved with this healthcare bill and the CBO report is accurate, then I too would be giddy. But I have serious doubts. And I am sick of their continued use of the term “reform”.

Over the years I have witnessed Washington tackle many reforms. We’ve enjoyed tax reforms, education reform, campaign finance reform, ethics reform, and many others. The promise of reform is always the same – cost savings with a simpler system. In my view, every time a reform is passed it costs more money and the system becomes more complex.

During all this talk I have yet to hear the term “bureaucracy”. The first thing that happens when the government gets involved with anything is create bureaucracy. I’ve heard of 12,000 additional IRS agents that will be needed to enforce the tax laws in this bill. There will be many new government agencies, departments, offices, staff, processes, rules, procedures, etc. The 535 congressmen and President Obama will not have nearly enough family and friends to fill all the positions.

The 2500 pages of this bill is now a blur to me. The promises are impossible  to believe anymore. Take this one example. You have heard that the bill will save $500 billion by stopping Medicare fraud. Really? If it is so easy to stop the fraud, why didn’t they do it 20 years ago or even last year? I expect about as much success here as the “war on drugs”. I bet there is nothing in this new bill that protects us from the new fraud that crooks will invent to steal money from this plan.

I am ashamed at the behavior of some of my conservative brethren. Their insensitivity to the uninsured sick is beyond imagination. But don’t miss the conservative point. The issue is not just about money, we question the assumption that this bill is going to save lives. Health insurance is no guarantee of quality health care.

I am not giddy about this heathcare mess.

I have observed over the years that once a government program has begun it can never be reduced or eliminated. Once people have been hired to manage government deals, they will never be fired. Big buildings will be constructed to house thousands of bureaucrats who will have better pay and benefits than their counterparts in the private sector. Healthcare represents 1/6th of our economy and it is about to be moved into the hands of government. What if it ends up being a bad idea? One thing is for sure, there will be no turning back.

The healthcare plan promises insurance for all, lower medical costs, deficit reduction, jobs, and a stronger economy. If this happens, then additional taxes and fees to pay for the plan will be well worth it. If it doesn’t happen, we will be like the guy falling off the cliff who said about half way down, “it’s okay so far”.

I tune in to progressive talk radio and television. Most of these people are smart and have a huge commitment to the disadvantaged. They want healthcare passed at all costs. They will not consider, however, the possibility that a government program could fail. That it could be a bad idea. That it will make a situation worse. That is, unless it’s a conservative president that is taking us into a war. Only then will an exit strategy be demanded.

If the progressive numbers are correct, there are many more casualties due to Americans inability to get healthcare than the wars with Iraq and Afghanistan combined. What if the healthcare plan costs more lives than it does now? A bill being passed in congress may constitute a miracle these days, but it can’t guarantee a better path to healing for the sick.

I would feel better if Obama would include an exit strategy. Why can’t he propose an honest review in 2020. Ask how many people are still uninsured. What medical services are being denied certain groups (elderly)? Has there been a rationing of services? Are there longer waits to getting urgent care? What is the condition of end of life programs for the terminally ill? How many people are dying because they can’t get adequate care when they need it? You get the idea.

I am burdened for the people who do not have access to quality healthcare. But I am scared to death about the government taking it over. I still believe the free market would provide better healthcare faster, and lower costs if given the chance. State insurance boards should be eliminated and the insurance industry opened up to competition, for starters. Oops, I forgot, you can’t eliminate government agencies.

I have found 7 clear winners and 7 clear losers. The uninsured are on both sides of the ledger. They are winners because the people who currently can’t get insurance due to pre-existing conditions or just can’t afford it, will be given access. This is certainly a win. They are also our first loser. They will not get the benefit until 2013 or 2014. The house bill starts in 2013 and the senate bill 2014. Say hello to the speed of government!

The biggest financial winner is Wall Street. Have you noticed the rise in stock prices for insurance companies during this debate? They are at their highest for the year. Insurers will make loads of money when 30 million join the ranks of the insured. Health insurance will be mandated. If you can afford it you will be required to buy it and if you can’t pay for it, then taxpayers will. Either way, the insurance companies get the money.

The biggest financial loser is small business. They will have the choice of paying for employees health insurance or paying the government an 8% tax. They will also face rising premiums. This may be enough to close some small businesses, for others expect higher prices for their products/services.

There are still lots of unanswered questions in the bill regarding doctors. I look at the fact that we don’t have enough doctors in the system now and we are about to add 30 million patients into the mix. This makes it a win for quack doctors and a loss for conscientious doctors. The quacks need more patients and the conscientious doctors can’t take any more. This probably means the good doctors will be mandated to bring in more patients resulting in longer waits and reduced services.

With the additional people getting healthcare this will create more jobs. Whether it is a skilled nurse or a hospital janitor, more jobs right now is huge. The loser economically is the American people. You need medication if you think healthcare costs overall will go down with this reform.

The lawyers may be the biggest winners. This bill is a dream come true for all ambulance chasers. There are no limits whatsoever. The millions they get for malpractice suits will keep their butts in plush offices and fancy cars forever. I have a doctor friend that pays over $100,000 a year in malpractice insurance alone. Keep that in mind the next time you complain about the doctor bill.

Another group of losers in this reform bill are the terminally ill. Finding cures is not what this legislation is about. There may not be “death panels” but it is obvious that the terminally ill and elderly are not going to be a favored class.

It is truly Christmas for scammers and con-artists with this bill. We already know that Medicare is the biggest target for criminals. 60 Minutes reported back in October that Medicare fraud is a bigger business than illegal drugs! The proposed healthcare program makes Medicare look like a hot dog stand in comparison.

Polls show that 85% of Americans are happy with their insurance. All of these people are going to be losers. It will not be devastating, but there is a cost. Premiums will go up, services will go down, lines will be longer, doctor visits will be shorter, and we will more resemble countries with socialized medicine. If everyone can have access to medical care, maybe it will be worth it. Time will tell.

Politically, the big winner is Barack Obama. He will be viewed as the President who finally got it done. It doesn’t matter if it works or if its good. He pulled a Nike and “just did it”, and that is what counts in politics. The losers in this are the republicans. They had no voice and could not get the easiest things done. Eighty percent of Americans would like tort reform and they couldn’t even get that included.

Big government has won and free market has lost on this one. But honestly, the free market folks did not care or give one thought to the uninsured. I believe a free market is key for a vibrant growing economy, but if we let people starve in the streets, it’s not worth it.